Swine Flu

Foreseeing. It is all about foreseeing.

What is ahead of Europe regarding the swine flu provoked by the H1N1 virus for this coming fall and winter can be somewhat predicted. Maybe it can be avoided, but definitely it will have to be faced. So, let us be prepared to cope with human losses and economic slowdown! And why not, develop a business that will help out others and bring you profit ?

How? By practicing "la veille" as French charmingly define -watching/surveillance. Governments do it, but in a rather social than economic way. Obviously the target is to spare human lives. But we can not forget the ones who escape this misery. Their lives go on, and so do the services to support them.

Europe will certainly face what is now being experienced by southern hemisphere countries like Argentina and Australia. These nations go through the winter now, they have the same latitude and economic level of development as to Carpathian countries as well as Greenwich time zone ones. These austral countries have been suffering economically due the presence of the virus. In Argentina the H1N1 flu epidemic that has affected at least 120,000 people in the country, more than 150 of whom have died, has led to a slowdown in economic activity. Theaters, cinemas, discos and gyms were temporarily closed, school vacations were extended and fewer people have been going out to eat.

Australia, the Asia-Pacific region's worst-hit country, has already placed an advance order for 21 million dosages - enough to immunize its entire population. But is it enough? "Having a vaccine available is not the same as having a vaccine that has been proved safe," said World Health Organization chief Margaret Chan to Britain's Guardian newspaper. Australia said its total of H1N1 flu cases had reached over 10 400, more than 10% of the WHO's global total. The country suspects H1N1 flu was the culprit in the deaths of some 20 people.

Many say a vaccine will be out soon. WHO director of vaccine research Marie-Paul Kieny, calling the pandemic "unstoppable", had said early July that a swine flu vaccine should be available as early as September. Will there be enough to everyone? How will manage the poor countries? Argentine President Cristina Fernandez suggested that developing countries should be allowed to "lift patent rights" so they can produce more vaccines to battle the A/H1N1 flu epidemic. In a speech at a regional Mercosur leaders summit in Paraguay, Fernandez said changing the status quo "does not mean disavowing the patents law," according to a report by the state news agency Telam.

Things are serious. But the press does not alarm the population of the profound problem we are in for. Maybe it does not appeal, or does not sell...

Now supposing a vaccine does come out in time, labs all over the planet work full time to produce enough doses to cover all needs, and amazing logistic will be put in place to deliver all production to where it is needed....will we have reasons to feel safe? Unconcerned and relieved?

Mankind has been fighting the cold virus for over centuries and has not come to a complete eradication because it mutates constantly....from season to season.

Regardless of the vaccine efficiency, as the virus will undoubtedly change on his trip up the northern hemisphere..it is time to watch, learn and act to prevent the worst. Because there will be losses, in large numbers.It is not necessary to be an alarmist to agree with that.

Disgrace for some, joy for others. I will never forget during the "El Ninõ " season back 1998...i have seen hundreds of homeless due the severe rainfall and ocean rage.
But it was a classic, consistent month of swell - one of best surf trips I have ever made.....
So, intelligence view on this matter shows that the H1N1 virus will certainly bring human losses, but on the other hand it may generate great business opportunities.

So, why not grab one as we help out others in the need ?


Sources: AFP, SAPA, The Guardian, news24 and newsmap.