A HOT BEGINNING OF FALL

Money

Iran´s decision to switch currency accounts is now official, following a decree signed by President Ahmadinejad. Needless to say how important for oil sales. With four million barrels a day, Iran is the world’s fourth largest “black gold” producer. But it does not end there. The political side of this decision has its consequences too. But one at a time.

Asia news stated – 'Iran, the fourth largest oil producer in the world, announced its intention of replacing the US dollar with the euro in the country’s foreign exchange accounts. Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad signed the decree a few days ago.

The order was issued following a decision by the trustees of the country's foreign reserves, Iranian media reported. The decision will be particularly significant in the oil field."

Taking a closer look at the figures, we see that Iran's daily 4Million barrel production represent 80% of its foreign exchanges and 50% of the government budget. And take into account the country is under economic sanctions for 30 years now.

As other gulf nations have not made the switch of currency, they stay put and observe the events; for the moment not big of a threat for the American "greenies". In fact, Iran just wants to be less dependent and thus effected by the economic sanctions issued by the U.S on the long run. As for now, Iranian Central Bank estimated to cut its interest rates for the foreign exchange reserve from 12% to 5% making it cheaper for the Bank to acquire foreign currency.

Politics

On the political side of the issue, we have Iran's alignment with European Union, supposedly easier to negotiate, both on oil and its nuclear question. Far easier to delay negotiations with a group of nations than doing it with one major power.

While Iran argues its program is strictly for the peaceful purpose of power production, the U.S. and many other western countries suspect Iran of nuclear weapons production.

Sounds familiar.

What´s next ?

If we look at current events, we might have a glimpse of whether or not we are in for rough times:

- Iran switches its currency.

- This week Al Quaeda sent threats to Germany, which will hold elections this coming Sunday. If not voting against the situation government, strikes such as those of recent years which terrified Madrid and London, might take place.

-It is known that Iran has a story of love and hate with Al Quaeda since the 9/11 episode.

-This week's UN events are of major role if we look at the big picture. Ahmadinejad speech is of great importance after September 12th announcement of euro 'friendliness'.

- The once controversially elected Iran's president, has now changed the scenario.

- Global community demands for missile installation blueprints

These facts, isolated or not, are very probable to lead to nothing threatening.

The Dark Side

However, looking back through the years, what history tells us is something else:

- Not long ago Saddam announced the same currency switch. He was also suspected of holding weapons for non-pacific purposes. Saddam, as well, had some media time to expose his opinions.

We all know what happened next. In fact it STILL goes on.

The only difference now is that there will not be necessary half a year of preparation and logistics.

It will be just a matter of crossing the border.

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UpDate on the 25th - Iran does have Nuke Plant

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Sources: Niqnaq blog, newsblaze.com, adnkronos.com, themedialine.org, wired.com, american chronicle.com, o estado de são paulo, globalgeopolitics.net, o globo.com

Oldie but goodie

The way to do Intelligence has its styles depending on cultural backgrounds, local geographic patterns and a country's history.

The way Japan does its intelligence is different from that of England, as this later is not the same as the one practiced in Germany.

It is not new that Sweden is among top countries when it comes to Intelligence Economique, or Competitive Intelligence for the Anglo-Saxons. Finland has its place on the hall of stong CI too. Now Norway is a bit different, they do their CI too, but in silence....yet they rule behind the scenes.

Scandinavian countries have a history of battles, wars, commerce and logistic. After all, life was not easy those days, as they were never too many, had to work out their own solutions to protect themselves against nearby oppressors.
They also were great navigators, there are signs of vikings all over the coast of America, both north and south ones. Commerce was a part of their culture, once they had to prepare what they needed, transport it, and stock it for the long months of winter.

La veille - the watching - is based on ODA principle: observe, direct, act. And it has been like this since men started their battles for all different reasons. Vikings did no different.

We then start to see this intelligence heritage puzzle fitting into the big picture. But this is based on academic analysis, simple A + B reasoning with the aid of Geopolitics which leads us to plausible conclusions.

Then the confirmation of all above paragraphs comes in a form of a simple set of laws. True ones, today part of scands' ties with their past.

It is a small postcard, that has been hanging on my living room wall for over five years, souvenir of a lovely trip to Norway.

In fact I had never seen it that way. I thought it was cool, funny, perhaps clever way to tell how it was done back on those days.... But then I read it again tonight and saw it in a different way...

Those old Scandinavian warriors knew it all about intelligence! After all, they were the ones responsible for their own conquests, be it in commerce or the batte field. The observation of the world, direction for further local improvements and all the plans of action to execute the tasks at stake have always been part of their lives.

It only proved that Intelligence is, above all, "un état d'esprit". So, here its, a set of rules that explain why scand's are so good on doing Intelligence, as it has been around for well over a thousand years!

VIKING LAWS

1 - BE BRAVE AND AGGRESSIVE
Be direct
Grab all opportunities
Use varying methods of attack
Be versatile and agile
Attack one target at a time
Don't plan everything in detail
Use top quality weapons

2 - BE PREPARED
Keep weapons in good conditions
Keep in shape
Find good battle comrades
Agree on important points
Choose ONE chief

3 - BE A GOOD MERCHANT
Find out what the market needs
Don't promise what you can't keep
Don't demand overpayment
Arrange things so that you can return

4 - KEEP THE CAMP IN ORDER
Keep things tidy and organized
Arrange enjoyable activities which strengthen the group
Make sure everyone does useful work
Consult all members of the group for advice

Voilà, if we put these simple laws into today's economic perspective, we have what to work with.

Amazingly compatible. Oldie but goodie !!!
Things have indeed been the same for quite a long time!

These laws made me curious to find out if we would obtain the same by checking out the code or laws of the Samurai...

But that would be a subject for another post!

On the Menu

L’entrée

This independence holiday weekend was marked as a special one for a couple of reasons.

On Saturday the greatest soccer derby in the world, Brasil x Argentina, took place in Rosario, northern Argentina. It granted the country’s presence in the South African World Cup next June. A superb performance by ‘seleção canarinho’ let Diego Maradona wordless after the game..... others say he may be jobless soon.

A 3 x 1 that confirmed this county’s supremacy in the most popular sport on earth.

The second reason was far different from the first one. France’s president Nicolas Sarkozy was in Brazil for the long weekend, to meet his peer, Lula. ‘Le président Sarkozy’ was here not only to reinforce “l’année de la France” and to celebrate Brazil’s Independence day from Portugal, the 7^th of September, but also for some lobbying. The final act of an armament deal. The largest in Brazil’s history.

Brazil is out shopping for fighter airplanes, submarines and helicopters. Apparently the French president came over to grant that his defense industry will take the order evaluated at 21 billions of reais, which makes 11,15 billion dollars, as of today’s exchange rate. It represents more than Venezuela’s and Colombia’s acquisitions together during the recent years. Two countries more militarily active than Brazil , due to their social and political situations.

The New York Times states that an American Congress study shows the USA as the greatest armament dealer, with 68,4% of 2008’s 55,2 billion dollars negotiated. A total of 37,8 billion dollars worth of closed deals throughout the world. Far behind comes Italy in second with 3,7 billions sold, then Russia in third with 3,5 billions. This gives us and idea of the market shares and figures as for the last year, to better comprehend the following paragraphs.

Le plat de Resistance

What´s on Brazil’s Lula shopping list ?

- 5 submarines (among which 1 nuclear and its fabrication technology)- deal closed

- 50 helicopters – deal closed

- 36 fighter ariplanes – letter of intentions signed

The resources for the payment of this considerable bill is Brazil´s national treasure.

The helicopter deal will only reinforce the ties of cooperation between France and Brazil, as there are two large industries in the southern hemisphere country – Eurocopter and Helibras.

As part of the aircraft purchase, it is included the possibility of technology transfer. Brazil would produce its own Rafale fighters. It would also be able to produce to sell for neighboring countries.

New element introduced during independence festivities - the purchase by the French government of 10 Embraer’s long range military transport KC-390 aircraft to be produced by in 2015.

According to the French company, Dassault, they hope to close the deal the latest in 2010. This sale alone represents between 5 and 7 billion dollars.

The boos Serge Dassault is more than happy, as this deal may save his business, in crisis, as it is good part of the French armament industry. Moreover, this fighter would come ‘nude’, which means that all the missiles and bombs will be sold separately...

According to Brazil’s defense department ‘ these new elements of technology transfer and the purchase of 10 Brazilian KC-390 military transport aircraft only added to the French proposal, demanding further analysis.’

It also states that ‘Usa’s Boeing and Sweden’s Saab may still propose their offers, which will be carefully studied’, despite the head advantage taken by France’s Dassault.

Side effects

As the military budget of Latin American countries has raised, according to Le Monde, 91% between 2003 and 2008, this deal may generate, or accelerate - as prefer some - the acquisition of military apparatus by other Latin America countries, causing a sort of regional military race, stuffing up traditional arm dealers’ pockets while putting aside local military development cooperation.

Time will tell.

Le dessert

It means the end of an era, the largest military deal in 40 years, and it was not with the USA industry! It does not represent tension between Brasilia and Washington, but a sign of Brazil’s independence concerning its military autonomy.

What for ? To show the country’s power, the only Latin American country with a global role at play. After February 2008’s Brazil – Argentina nuclear deal, this new Franco-Brazilian pact will represent a major test: either the reinforcement of local security for neighboring countries or it will show the way for Brazil’s military autonomy.

Brazil has an historical peaceful vocation, this upgrade on its defense apparatus will not represent a threat to potential enemies – if there is any - but rather a concern to protect its vast natural resources and to reinforce its global role as an emergent country.

La Cerise sur le Gâteau

These purchases are part of an axis of a major plan, which also includes stronger leadership and economical presence among BRIC countries, social developments, the role as one of the world’s major power suppliers, and preservation of natural resources.

Final goal: A seat at United Nation’s Security Council, the dream of Brazilian diplomacy.

Sources:

O Globo, BBC, Le Monde, Libération, New York Times, Ministério das Relações Exteriores – Itamaraty, Último Segundo, Deutsche Welle World, Terra magazine

Twitter at your Intelligence Services

It has been a bit over two years since I started working with Apple products. It all began with my lovely Elena's desktop IMac G3 that surprised me by its performance -acceptable with some memory enhancing - despite its age. Today I have a love affair with my Mac book pro.
The mac world is different. Intuitive, straight forward, open and most of all, it is safe if compared to PC's. The cost of licenses and updates of virus protection software makes up the for the price difference, on the long run, in a Windows X Mac machine choice, both of the same level.

It is not my intent here to discuss the benefits and drawbacks of each OS. But to discuss the set of services available for Mac that increases astonishingly.

My job obliges me to concentrate full-time on Windows based servers, stations, products and gadgets.
My personal life induces me to be in contact with, to follow and to seek what is new on mac world. Now and then I come accros some superb stuff. Yesterday was one of this days, when you find out a new trick, that sets you wandering. For mac users, intelligence freaks, and part-time or pro spies, here it goes: The once only windows service capable of remotely control your PC is now available to Mac. Via Twitter!

TweetMyPC, a free utility that lets you control your PC from anywhere has just been ported to Mac. The new app is called TweetMyMac and, like its elder Windows cousin, you can use TweetMyMac to send commands to your Macbook over the web from any other computer or even a mobile phone (via a text message).

How it works?

It is a matter of installing the app on your Mac and associate it with a Twitter account*. Then send a regular tweet with the command wrapped in (for example, shutdown or sleep). The app on the Mac, checking for your tweets at a given interval will perform the required action on the remote Mac computer as it acknowledges the twitter stream.

*A separated Twitter id (with “protected” updates) for sending remote commands to your Mac.

Into Practice

Using TweetMyMac you can perform all sorts of tasks on your Mac, remotely:

1. Shutdown (to shutdown your Mac immediately without saving any files) or Sleep (for putting your Mac in sleep mode).

2.Screenshot - If you want to know what applications are open on your Mac desktop, send the “screenshot” command - the picture of your desktop will again be uploaded to twitpic.

3. iSight - This is great if you want to know what’s happening in the surroundings. Send the iSight command and the app will take a picture with the built-in iSight web camera and will upload it to Twitpic.

It is important to notice tha this app is in beta and obviously it should always be running on your Mac computer for receiving commands. Due the early stage of services expect some bugs.

Applications

It is the possible evolution of this service that amazed me, specially with the camera:

Shut down or put your Mac to sleep may be very handy if for some reason you have visit at home and you are not there, for example.

But real business lies ahead, with the possibility of using custom shell commands, it is possible to work around some solutions to obtain not only pictures, but video streaming. Just a glimpse of what may become possible very shortly:

Security:Set up a group of cameras relayed to your mac to build own home security system and control it from work, at the club or while on vacation (but leave your Mac home!).

Surveillance: You place your mac strategically to: check your office when you are away, keep an eye on the babysitter at home or what your teens are up to when you are not there.

Spying: Imagine the following scenario; Very important decisions are being made in a closed door meeting in a large corporation. All the board is present to discuss the strategic plan for the next three years. Inside the room, an inoffensive Macbook sits quietly on the very next table..................